Because it is one of the most popular and well advertised horse races in Britain, it’s no surprise that the Epsom Derby attracts millions of betters each year from around the world. A lot of these punters don’t ever bet on other races and can increase the market with ‘dead money’, which serves to increase the prize pot for serious betters. The best option is to follow some simple guidelines.
Tip 1- Back a colt. The last filly to win the Epsom Derby was in 1916, so it’s clear that it’s a safer bet to place your money on a colt if you want to win something, even if the filly you’re backing has won all her races. Fillies don’t always have the high odds either- such as Cape Verdi in 1988, who was pegged as a favourite and lost.
Tip 2- Watch the short odds horses. With a few exceptions, the short odds horses generally are the better performers at the Derby. In the last 7 years there hasn’t been a winner at the Epsom Derby that has been priced over 7:1.
Tip 3- Back Kieren Fallon and Johnny Murtagh. These two jockeys have 6 wins at the Epsom Derby since 1999 and are top flat racers. Plus, you should look out for partnerships between Sir Michael Stoute and Auden O’Brien- two top trainers have set the standard for Epsom in the past few years.
Tip 4- Follow the trial races. A lot of races before the classic show you which horses will perform well. Ones to watch are the Chester Dee Stakes, The Lingfield Derby Trial and the York Dante Stakes. Whilst some do pay attention to the 2,000 guineas at Newmarket, this course is nothing like the Epsom downs and is run over a different length and track style- meaning it gives little indication of how a horse will perform at Epsom.
Tip 5- Back a specialist. Look at the statistics for the runners who will be at the Epsom Derby as it needs a combination of stamina and experience which horses that specialise in sprints or long distance might not have. Look at horses who have achieved glory
at distances over a mile and a half before betting.